There are likely three distinct geographical regions that are self-organized by the roles that NSAs play in the whole of Sub-Saharan Africa.
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  • Southern and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa: This region is most likely influenced by Government Sanctioned NSAs and is likely to be increasingly influenced by these same types of NSAs in the future. Government Sanctioned NSAs are likely to increase their influence in states like Tanzania, South Africa, and Botswana, while Mozambique is likely to see the greatest change.
  • Central Sub-Saharan Africa: The roles of NSAs are likely dramatically different. Here Extra-Government NSAs predominate but their role is unlikely to change much over the next 5 years. Nearly 60% of the countries in this region will likely experience no change in the roles of NSAs over the next 5 years
  • Western Sub-Saharan Africa: NSAs likely play a wide variety of roles depending on the state. From a strong Extra-Government presence in a country like Guinea (which is likely to only grow stronger) to a moderate Government Sanctioned presence in a state like Senegal (which is also likely to grow stronger), the net effect of NSAs in the west shows no clear trends.
  • There is also some evidence that certain types of NSAs likely support each other or, at least, tend to come in groups.
    • There is a very strong correlation (.86) between the presence of NGOs and businesses (both Government Sanctioned NSAs) in a particular country. This association held true independently of the type of NSA (Government Sanctioned or Extra-Governmental) that predominated in the state.
    • Terrorist groups, on the other hand, are only weakly negatively correlated (-.1) with strong NSAs of any type anywhere in Africa, suggesting that terrorists, at least in this region, prefer countries with relatively more rather than less state control.

The different regions also demonstrate different relationships/correlations to the variables and the presence of NSA of different types. Government Sanctioned environments generally have more businesses. The number of NGOs demonstrate a significantly higher correlation to the Doing Business Variable in Extra-Government States than Government Sanction States. Terrorist groups demonstrate a drastically different correlation to the Failed State Variable in Western States than in Central and Southern/Eastern states.

  • Business: Business NSA tend to be focused primarily in coastal nations and in landlocked countries that have significant reserves of natural resources. The Doing Business variable shows consistent correlation to the number of businesses varying from 46% correlation in Southern and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa to 65% correlation in Central Africa. Countries on the Government Sanctioned side of the role potential spectrum regularly demonstrate larger numbers of businesses. Government Sanctioned countries average 8.9 companies vs 4.96 in Extra-Government countries (from sample). This pattern also tracks geographically as Government Sanctioned dominant Southern and Eastern countries average 9 companies, compared to an average of 5.58 and 5.1 companies in the Extra-Government dominant Central and Western Sub-Saharan African countries respectively.
  • NGO: The number of NGOs (from sample) have a 41% correlation to overall role potential scores. However, the Extra-Government side of the role potential spectrum demonstrate a 69% correlation between the Doing Business variable and the number of NGOs, as contrasted by a 46% correlation between number of NGOs and Doing Business variable in Government Sanctioned states. This pattern is found geographically as Extra-Government dominated Central African Doing Business variables demonstrate a 79% correlation to the number of NGOs; versus a 44% correlation found in Southern and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa and a 40% correlation in Western Sub-Saharan Africa.
  • Terrorist Organizations: In general, the closer a Government Sanctioned state's Failed State Variable score is to 0, the more active terrorist groups reside within its borders (negative correlation; see discussion). Government Sanctioned states demonstrate a 50% negative correlation between the Failed State Variable and the number of active terrorist groups (from sample) within it s borders. Extra-Government states, however, do not show this relationship. Extra-Government state Failed State Variables only demonstrate a 18% negative correlation. This dynamic seems to be the result of the influence of Western Sub-Saharan African. Western state's Failed State Variable scores positively correlate (weakly) to terrorist groups at 12%, in contrast to 39% and 47% negative correlations of Southern/Eastern and Central regions respectively.

A note on state control and geography:

Anecdotal data seems to indicate that the effect of state control on the roles of NSAs is often better explained by geography rather than the characteristics of governance. Governments which fail to control border and rural areas are likely to have more NSAs capable of acquiring more popular support. The indication is that governments that failed to bring law and order, social services, and stability to outlying areas likely leave opportunities for human, drug, and arms traffickers, as well as insurgents and terrorist groups to cross borders and establish strongholds. Populations which live outside of the government's sphere of control are likely to be more susceptible to the influence of NSAs, including the use of violence and intimidation as well as ideological and religious persuasion and may even come to rely on NSAs for civil services such as law enforcement/protection, health care, education, etc. Moreover, corruption seems to affect NSAs roles when it is centralized in the civil service and used by local civil servants. Often the failure to indict high ranking officials is cited as a failure of anti-corruption efforts; however, often local officials (governors, etc.) can be the biggest obstacles for corporations, NGOs, etc. As in Cameroon, reductions in civil service wages will likely compel civil servants to supplement their income by demanding bribes and extorting corporations. Therefore, the geographic dispersion of corruption is also a concern when analyzing the role of NSAs.